Prior to Sydney's protracted lockdown, futures markets were pricing in multiple rate hikes over the next few years. The situation has changed, however, with the lockdown placing an entirely different kind of pressure on decision makers. At the start of the lockdown, banking regulator APRA started to raise the potential of negative interest rates with the banks. This noise became louder as the lockdown continued, with negative rates now a very real possibility. ; ; ; ; ;
According to Commonwealth Bank (CBA) predictions, Australia's economy is expected to contract by 2.7% in the September quarter alone. While that may not sound like much, it is an entire percentage point higher than the fall experienced during the 1990s recession, where GDP fell by just 1.7%. Politicians and bankers will need to make tough decisions going forward, and they are already expecting the worst. CBA are now predicting a rate hike in May 2023, which is a long way, and many decisions by the Reserve Bank, away.
While negative interest rates are very foreign to Australians, Japan, Denmark, and Switzerland have been dipping into negative territory for years. Negative interest rates have also become likely in England, with the Bank of England giving UK banks six months to prepare back in February. This should not really be a surprise, as unsustainable debt levels reach into lofty new realms. Even back in February, the collective borrowings of world governments, households, and businesses had increased by a massive US$24 trillion since the pandemic began.
The economic situation in China will also affect Australian interest rates in the months ahead. Despite trade falling off in some areas over the last year, the health of the Australian economy is still largely dependent on China. Massive stimulus in the Middle Kingdom has greatly eroded confidence, as commodity prices sit near record highs and Beijing attempts to put on the brakes. While yet another large-scale construction program will help somewhat, it risks sending commodity prices even higher while putting additional pressure on inflation.
The other factor sure to play a role in the RBA's decision is the domestic residential housing market. With property prices already sky-high, a negative cash rate would only send prices higher. Existing mortgage holders could gain trillions of dollars’ worth of collective equity if this happened, but prospective first-home buyers would face even more hurdles trying to get into the market. While negative rates are far from certain, just talking about them is a sign that we have entered brand new territory. ;